What does the future in Arizona look like?

arizona predictionsOk, we’ve heard all the horror stories. We know Arizona has been hit hard by the recession and the plummeting real estate market.  That’s all been talked to death.  In my mind, however, is a bigger question.  When is it all going to end (no, I’m not talking about the end of the world here…just the end of the downfall of the Phoenix Metro economy.)

About 5-6 years ago, Arizona was a hotbed of growth.  Homes were appreciating at ridiculous rates with some homeowners realizing 100% appreciation in a matter of just 3 years.  Doubling the value of your home sounds like a good thing and it was, if you cashed out. But most did not.  Most stayed and are now wishing they had sold at the height of the market, rented for a few years and now be sitting pretty to purchase the home of their long awaited dreams.

Now the most frequent question I hear from friends and clients is, when is the real estate market going to come back to, at the very least, ‘normal’ appreciation?

“Well, let me check my crystal ball…”

The good news is the latest predictions show the worst is over as far as recessions go and there is talk that a strong growth period for Arizona is being born as we speak.

arizonaThe University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management Economic and Business Research Center publishes the State of Arizona’s most detailed and up-to-date economic projections.  Their latest report shows the Arizona job market should begin to accelerate in 2012 and here’s the best news.  We could actually be in the middle of another Arizona BOOM period within the next 5 years!  How’s that for encouraging?  Of course, we have to make it past the doomsday prophecies of the world ending in 2012 first.  I guess what your house is worth won’t much matter at the point anyway.

So what about 30 years from now?  Let’s see, I’ll be in my 80’s and my grandkids will be almost as old as I am now.  Scary.  Oh, wait…That’s not what I’m talking about…the economy..yes, that’s where I was going with this…

So, 30 years from now the population is expected to nearly double.  Today, Arizona’s population of 6.7 million ranks as the 13th most populated state.  If predictions of our growth come true, we could be the 7th largest state by 2040, overtaking Virginia, New Jersey, North Caroline Georgia, Michigan and Ohio.

Where does the Phoenix Metro area fit in that population outline?  Roughly two-thirds of the entire population of Arizona resides in the Phoenix Metro area.  That number could rise to 74% by 2040.

Is this really good news?  Well, I guess if you’re a homeowner is it.  All those people have to live somewhere!

About Amy Jones Group

Amy Jones is the owner of Amy Jones Group Keller Williams Integrity First. The Amy Jones group has been recognized as the #1 Real Estate Team in Chandler by the Phoenix Business Journal and voted Best of Our Valley for 4 years.

The Amy Jones Group specializes in real estate in Chandler, Sun Lakes, Gilbert, Mesa, Tempe, Ahwatukee, and Phoenix.