The Phoenix AZ Real Estate Report for August 2010

The stats are out for the Phoenix AZ Real Estate Market with the publication of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services  (ARMLS)  August “STAT” newsletter which reports the following~

2010 was showing signs of surpassing 2009 for number of homes sold. 2009 was the 3rd highest on record for home sales with 93,300 homes sold. Homes sales were exploding in the Phoenix area until July 2010 when we saw sales plummet, falling 22% over July of last year, adding credence to economists fears that the end of the buyer credit would signal a decline in buyer activity.

If sales continue according to the last five years average sales, Phoenix should end up around the 87,000 mark for total homes sales in 2010, a 7% decline over last year.

Home sales in Phoenix AZ
The inventory of newly listed homes for sale in the Phoenix Metro area remains close to the average of 12,556 new listings per month that has continued over the last 12 months.

REO and short sale listings make up the highest percentage of the current homes for sale with 61% of the market recorded in July 2010.

Total inventory of homes for sale has remained steady at about 41,300 on average and varying no more than 4%.  In July 2010 there were 42,887 homes listed for sale.

Buyers Market or Sellers Market in Phoenix AZ Real Estate Market?

Between March and June 2010, we ranged from 4.77 – 4.51 months worth of supply (or how many months it would take to sell ALL the homes based on recent sales averages).  This meant we were technically in a Seller’s Market which is determined to exist when the inventory falls to less than a 5 month supply of homes.

When the sales fell off in July, we bounced to 6.04 months of supply, moving us us to a “balanced” market.  Fyi ~ if we reach over 7 months worth of inventory, we fall into the Buyer’s Market category.  NAR reports are showing 8.9 months of inventory Nationally so we’re doing better than the National norm.

phoenix real estate market

List prices in Phoenix AZ Real Estate Market

We topped out on our average list price of $422,000 in January 2007.  In July 2010 our average list price was recorded at $198,715.  Ouch…that’s a 53% decline in 3.5 years.

Median prices which most feel is a more accurate picture?  Unfortunately, that picture’s not much better.  Our Median List Price declined in July 2010 to $130,000 from June’s median of $132,500 and set a record for an all time low Median List Price since the beginning of the tally in January 2001.  Egads.

Home prices in Phoenix AZ

Sales Prices in Phoenix AZ Real Estate Market

Our sales price gains in the Fall of 2009 and Spring of 2010 have taken a downturn putting us almost exactly where we were last year at this time.

Where are prices going? aka The Phoenix, AZ Real Estate Market Sales Price Forecast

Oh…don’t I wish I had that crystal ball?  This IS the million dollar question and ARMLS has developed something called the Pending Price Index (PPI) as a predictive marketing tool that’s based on pending sales data.

The ARMLS PPI for Phoenix predicts that the average price of a home will drop over 4% in August to $168,700 and continue downward at a slower rate in September (3.1%),  October (1.5%) then spike strongly upward 14% in November to $183,700.

Please Note that ARMLS states the following

The accuracy of the ARMLS PPI™ diminishes the further into the future the prediction is made
because the sample size diminishes with time. So the strong recovery in November should be
tempered with caution because of a long lead time.

phoenix sales price forecast

The data and graphs I have used was provided courtesy of August STAT Report by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

About The Amy Jones Group

Mindy Jones Nevarez is the owner of Amy Jones Group Keller Williams Integrity First. The Amy Jones Real Estate Group has been recognized as the #1 Real Estate Team in Chandler by the Phoenix Business Journal and voted Best of Our Valley for 4 years.

The Amy Jones Group specializes in real estate in Chandler, Sun Lakes, Gilbert, Mesa, Tempe, Ahwatukee, and Phoenix.

Comments

  1. While things have been very slow this summer, I too have felt that this year will surpass last year in sales. The economy is certainly doing better than it has over the past few years, and there has been a large amount of Canadian home buyers coming to Arizona that I also feel helps boost the numbers for home sales this year. Lets keep our fingers crossed that the remaining few months of the year will really give us the remaining figures we need to make this year a success.