2013 ~ The next real estate boom?

Generation YWill 2013 bring in the next real estate boom?  Many believe so.

Why?  Generation Y, aka the “Mellenials” or the “Echo Boomers”.  They’re the population born between 1980 and 1995.  74 million potential home buyers to be exact. 

The average age of first-time home buyers today is 33 according to the National Association of Realtors.  The oldest Mellenials are 29 and many of them are starting to take advantage of the most affordable home prices we’ve had in years.

Generation X is comprised of the population born between 1965 and 1979.  A group of a measly 48 million people in comparison.

Sue Rossi, a RE/Max Broker in Crete, Illinois has been following the correlation between birthrate and real estate statistics for several years.  Her research has shown basically this ~ A drop in birthrates triggers a drop home sales 33 years later (the average age of a first time home buyer).  

This theory may not always hold up since there are other situations (like the economy) that play into home buying activity, but if you look at the data, it’s pretty incredible.  Consider that the years 1973-1976 produced the 4 lowest birthrate years since WWII.  Add 33 years to those dates and you end up with 2006-2009.  Hmmmmm…very interesting. 

Granted, there was a lot more going on (or wrong) over the last 3 years to help create our lull in buyer activity, but the trend of low birthrates during those years certainly didn’t help our first time home buyer pool.  Talk about not being able to pull a “buyer out of your hat”.  Exactly.  If they weren’t born, how can they buy?  By Jove, I think I’ve got it!

So, pundits are predicting 2013 to be the beginning of the next wave demand for homes.  So hold your breath it’s coming.  2013, less than 4 years to go.  Ok.  maybe you shouldn’t hold your breath.


  1. […] 2013 – The next real estate boom? – A good argument based on birth rates that the next boom is not that far away. That is of course […]